A gutshot is a type of straight draw where a player needs one specific card to complete their straight. It’s also known as an “inside straight draw” because the card required to complete the straight is located inside the middle of the straight’s structure. While not as strong as an open-ended straight draw, a gutshot can still offer significant value if the right card comes on the turn or river.
What is a Gutshot Straight Draw?
A gutshot straight draw occurs when a player is missing one specific card to complete their straight. For example, if you hold 6 7 and the flop shows 5 9 Q , you have a gutshot draw. The only card that will complete your straight is the 8 of any suit. Since only four cards in the deck can complete your straight, gutshot draws are considered weaker than other types of straight draws.
Gutshot vs. Open-Ended Straight Draw
A gutshot is less likely to complete than an open-ended straight draw, where you have eight outs (four cards on either end of the straight) rather than four outs in the middle. Here’s a comparison of the two:
- Gutshot Straight Draw: Four outs (one specific rank completes the straight).
- Open-Ended Straight Draw: Eight outs (two possible ranks complete the straight).
The Math Behind a Gutshot
Because there are only four cards in the deck that can complete a gutshot straight draw, the probability of hitting one by the next card is lower than other types of draws. Here’s how the math breaks down:
- On the flop: There are 47 unseen cards left in the deck (52 total minus your 2 hole cards and the 3 on the flop). Only 4 of these cards can complete your gutshot, giving you roughly an 8.5% chance of hitting the straight on the turn.
- Turn and River combined: If you miss on the turn, you have another chance to hit your gutshot on the river. The combined odds of hitting a gutshot by the river are about 16.5%.
When to Chase a Gutshot
Chasing a gutshot is often considered a high-risk move because of the low probability of completing the draw. However, it can still be profitable in certain situations, especially if the potential reward outweighs the risk. Factors to consider include:
- Pot Odds: Evaluate whether the size of the pot justifies the risk of calling. If the pot is large compared to the bet you need to call, it might be worth chasing the gutshot.
- Implied Odds: If hitting your gutshot could win you a large pot (e.g., your opponent has a strong hand and may pay you off), the implied odds could make the call profitable.
- Position: Playing from late position allows you to better assess your opponents’ actions before making a decision. This can help you decide if chasing a gutshot is worthwhile.
How to Play Gutshots Correctly
Gutshot draws are often tricky to play because of their low likelihood of completing. However, they can be useful in certain scenarios, particularly in bluffing or semi-bluffing situations. Here’s how to approach playing gutshots effectively:
- Consider Pot Odds: Only chase a gutshot if the potential payout justifies the risk. For example, if the pot odds suggest that calling with a low chance of hitting your straight is still profitable, then it may be worth it.
- Semi-Bluff: A gutshot can serve as a great hand to semi-bluff with, especially in position. You apply pressure to your opponents while still having a chance to complete your draw.
- Implied Odds: If you expect to get paid off big if your draw completes, the implied odds might make chasing the gutshot more reasonable. However, be cautious as implied odds can be difficult to estimate.
- Fold When Appropriate: When the pot odds and implied odds don’t justify the risk, or you’re facing large bets, folding is the correct move. There’s no shame in letting go of a weak draw like a gutshot.
Risks of Chasing Gutshots
While gutshots can lead to big pots if completed, there are significant risks involved:
- Low Probability: The odds of hitting a gutshot are fairly low compared to other draws like flush or open-ended straight draws.
- Costly Calls: Calling too often with a gutshot can quickly deplete your bankroll if you fail to complete the draw.
- Reverse Implied Odds: Even if you hit your gutshot, there’s a chance that it could still lose to a higher straight or other stronger hands.
Gutshot in Summary
The gutshot straight draw is a valuable, but risky draw in poker. It gives you four outs, making it weaker than an open-ended straight draw but still capable of winning a large pot if the right card hits. To play gutshots profitably, always consider your pot odds, implied odds, and position, and don’t be afraid to fold when the risk isn’t justified.
