Expected Value (EV): A calculation of the average money expected to be won or lost over time from a specific poker decision.
Expected Value (EV) is one of the most fundamental concepts in poker. It refers to the average amount of money a player can expect to win or lose from a particular decision over time. In poker, players often use EV to evaluate the profitability of their actions, whether it’s calling a bet, raising, or folding, by analyzing the long-term outcome of those decisions.
How Expected Value Works
Every decision in poker can have a positive (+EV) or negative (-EV) expected value:
- +EV: The action will make money in the long run.
- -EV: The action will lose money in the long run.
While the immediate result of a single hand can be a win or a loss, EV focuses on the average result if the same situation were to happen many times. For example, even if you lose a hand where you have pocket aces, making that play was still +EV because pocket aces are statistically favored to win most of the time.
Formula for Calculating EV
EV is calculated by multiplying the potential outcomes by their probabilities and adding the results together. Here’s the basic formula for expected value:
Where:
- P(win) is the probability of winning the hand.
- “pot size” is the size of the pot or reward.
- P(loss) is the probability of losing the hand.
- “bet size” is the amount risked in the hand.
You can copy and paste each MathML block separately as needed.
EV in Practice: Example
Imagine you’re in a cash game, and you need to decide whether to call a $100 bet for a chance to win a $500 pot. After thinking about your opponent’s possible range and the cards on the table, you estimate that you have a 30% chance of winning.
To figure out if calling is a good idea, you use the Expected Value (EV) formula:
This formula works by calculating the average outcome if you made this call many times. The 0.30 is your chance of winning, so you multiply it by the $500 pot (your potential win). The 0.70 is your chance of losing, so you multiply that by the $100 you’re risking.
In this case:
- Winning earns you $150 (0.30 x 500).
- Losing costs you $70 (0.70 x 100).
So, the EV is $150 – $70 = +$80. This means that in the long run, you would make $80 on average by calling, so it’s a profitable decision.
Positive and Negative EV Decisions
- Positive EV (+EV): If the EV of a play is positive, it’s a profitable decision. For instance, betting with a strong hand against a weaker range of opponents is a +EV move because, on average, it will win more money than it loses.
- Negative EV (-EV): If the EV is negative, you are expected to lose money over time. For example, chasing an unlikely flush draw when the pot odds don’t justify the call is a -EV decision.
Long-Term Significance
One key aspect of EV is its long-term focus. You may make a correct decision that ends up losing in the short term, but over a large enough sample of hands, the EV of your decisions will reflect the true profitability of your play. This concept helps players avoid being results-oriented, where they focus only on the immediate outcome of the hand, rather than the quality of their decisions.
Understanding and applying EV helps poker players improve their decision-making and increase their profitability by focusing on plays that yield a positive outcome in the long run.
